Simulations are a MUST to build winning NASCAR DFS lineups

Episode 13 May 02, 2022 01:08:41
Simulations are a MUST to build winning NASCAR DFS lineups
DFS Office Hours (Presented by SaberSim.com)
Simulations are a MUST to build winning NASCAR DFS lineups

May 02 2022 | 01:08:41

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Show Notes

Matt and Jordan break down how SaberSim's NASCAR simulations work and how NASCAR DFS simulations can give you a massive edge over the competition this season.

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00:00 Intro
0:55 What is a simulation?
03:25 What are the inputs and factors to our NASCAR sim?
07:25 How SaberSim uses sim data and the value of sims
11:25 How our model takes into account the nuances of a specific race
13:30 How to add additional value to the model
19:15 Why NASCAR settings are set to 0-10 and navigating ownership and variance
23:40 Our NASCAR model predicts wrecks
27:30 Understanding the distribution of outcomes for drivers
32:54 Simulations let you play intuitively and trust your gut
35:07 Heuristics and rules of thumb don't work in NASCAR DFS
37:25 Tri-modal component of distributions
40:45 Future improvements planned for the model
44:50 How correlation is factored into sims
47:36 How practice times and driver fit research can add value
49:40 Why you don't need to program groups to build NASCAR lineups with SaberSim
53:53 Better or worse model accuracy on different tracks
55:16 Best settings for NASCAR
58:04 Aggregating multiple sims and dealing with covariance at lower sim variance settings
1:00:37 Is the maximum value-add editing exposures?
1:03:45 Percentiles in NASCAR

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