Simulations are a MUST to build winning NASCAR DFS lineups

Episode 13 • May 02, 2022 • 01:08:41
Simulations are a MUST to build winning NASCAR DFS lineups
DFS Office Hours (Presented by SaberSim.com)
Simulations are a MUST to build winning NASCAR DFS lineups

May 02 2022 | 01:08:41

/

Show Notes

Matt and Jordan break down how SaberSim's NASCAR simulations work and how NASCAR DFS simulations can give you a massive edge over the competition this season.

Sign-up for your free 7-day trial of SaberSim Now

Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/sK1_z7inCds

Join Slack Here: https://bit.ly/3cGr2c4

00:00 Intro
0:55 What is a simulation?
03:25 What are the inputs and factors to our NASCAR sim?
07:25 How SaberSim uses sim data and the value of sims
11:25 How our model takes into account the nuances of a specific race
13:30 How to add additional value to the model
19:15 Why NASCAR settings are set to 0-10 and navigating ownership and variance
23:40 Our NASCAR model predicts wrecks
27:30 Understanding the distribution of outcomes for drivers
32:54 Simulations let you play intuitively and trust your gut
35:07 Heuristics and rules of thumb don't work in NASCAR DFS
37:25 Tri-modal component of distributions
40:45 Future improvements planned for the model
44:50 How correlation is factored into sims
47:36 How practice times and driver fit research can add value
49:40 Why you don't need to program groups to build NASCAR lineups with SaberSim
53:53 Better or worse model accuracy on different tracks
55:16 Best settings for NASCAR
58:04 Aggregating multiple sims and dealing with covariance at lower sim variance settings
1:00:37 Is the maximum value-add editing exposures?
1:03:45 Percentiles in NASCAR

Other Episodes

Episode 811

January 05, 2026 • 00:35:29
Episode Cover

DFS Q&A: How Should You Build for Small vs. Large NBA Slates?

In this episode, Andrew breaks down how strategy changes between small and large NBA slates. Watch on YouTube: https://youtube.com/live/2VRcefvdNAQ 00:00 Intro12:26 Can you go...

Listen

Episode 441

March 11, 2024 • 00:28:45
Episode Cover

DFS Q&A: What is a good SaberScore?

On this episode, Andrew breaks down the SaberScore metric. Watch on YouTube: https://youtube.com/live/mdW_d0pIa-E 00:00 Intro01:20 Am I playing with a reasonable bankroll?02:46 What is...

Listen

Episode 134

November 02, 2022 • 00:36:31
Episode Cover

DFS Q&A: Does SaberSim give you +EV lineups with default settings?

On this episode, Andrew demonstrates building lineups using the default settings.  Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JAtwRPweStI&t=540s 4:37 Making adjustments on GPP builds8:46 MLB Showdown Process13:25...

Listen