Matt and Wil join Jordan to talk about SaberSim's MLB simulator: why simulations are valuable for MLB DFS, how we built a sophisticated model, and what's new for this season.
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Watch on YouTube: https://youtu.be/BZDWI7PcRxQ
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00:00 Intro
00:55 What is a simulation?
06:50 Why simulate baseball? What's the value?
12:38 What does a baseball simulation look like?
17:00 Bullpen modeling
18:15 Pinch hitting
20:00 Umpires
25:07 Weather
32:20 Park factors
35:35 Vegas
39:33 Minor league players getting called
43:13 Is there bad common wisdom about projecting MLB?
47:35 What is a unique challenge of simulating baseball?
54:40 What's new to SaberSim's model for this season?
57:45 How do we know if our changes are improving things?
59:30 What's new in baseball this year?
1:03:20 Universal DH
1:07:00 7-inning doubleheaders
1:09:40 What improvements are coming next?
1:15:30 Does our bullpen model know which relievers threw recently?
1:18:10 Granularity of sim
1:20:10 Statcast?
1:22:30 Changing projections and the simulations
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